Kaine-sper the Friendly Ghost

Overview: After a pledge to the contrary, Gov. Tim Kaine is now traveling 1 day a week on business related to the Democratic National Committee.  He also admits to spending another half day a week on the phone with DNC’s Washington DC headquarters.  So, Kaine is admitting 1.5 days a week.  I suspect 4 days a week.  One thing for sure – his isn’t coming clean with his schedule.  See the article here.

The Big Problem: Virginia governors can only serve one consecutive term.  They may serve another term but it may not be consecutive with a prior term.  In effect, this amounts to a one term, term limit.  I believe this approach has pros and cons.  On the pro side, there are no more unending political machines like the corrupt and racist Byrd regime.  Governors don’t spend half their first term running for re-election to a second term.  However, on the con side, the governor is something of a “lame duck” (not to be confused with Sen. Creigh “Daffy Duck(er)” Deeds – see yesterday’s article).  Finally, Virginia’s governors are usually young and ambitious enough to pursue significant post-gubernatorial positions.  Unfortunately, they go AWOL while governor in order to get ahead start on “the next thing”.  Kaine is clearly in this camp.  After a lackluster term as governor where little was accomplished during his four years in Richmond he has become invisible in state government.

Linking Sen. Creigh “Daffy Duck(er)” Deeds and Gov. Tim “the Friendly Ghost” Kaine: The Duck(er) and the Ghost bring out a big flaw in Virginia politics.  As evidenced by the Ghost, Virginia’s one term governors don’t have to worry much about how they are perceived at the end of their term.  As evidenced by the Duck(er) candidates can run for high office (i.e. governor) without taking much of a stand on the issues.  So, we elect a governor who has few campaign promises to bind him or her to the one term in office.  Then, there is no re-election to catalyze the governor into making additional commitments as his or her term progresses.  In fact, the governor is motivated to get started on the next position while still in office.  Add the part-time, underpaid members of the General Assembly and we have a state running on “special interest” auto-pilot.  This is not a good approach during times of significant change (like now).

Plucking the Duck(er): I’ll leave the question of a part-time, under-paid and largely inept General Assembly for another post.  I’ll also bypass the question of a one term governor.  I provided those points because they make the third point all the more important – we must get our candidates for governor to take stands on the issues.  We should harangue them mercilessly until they either take stands on issues or go home as defeated candidates.  That’s the only way we’ll ever force some accountability from the governor.  In four years we’ll be electing another governor.  If Deeds or McDonnell made campaign promises which they kept – they should be able to move up the political ladder.  If not, they should be thrown on as the ash heap of political history.  Either way, we need the candidates to make committments now while we have the election to hold over their head.

Separated at birth? Once again, I see a Virginia politician and a cartoon character as possible twins separated at birth.

"I'm the friendly ghost"

"I'm just a plain old ghost"

Daffy Duck(er) Deeds

Overview: The Washington Post is Reporting that Sen. Creigh Deeds has reaffirmed his unwillingness to commit to a series of debates requested by Bob McDonnell.  McDonnell wants 10 debates between now and the election.  Deeds will only agree (so far, at least) to one debate – the traditional debate at the Homestead in Deeds’ home county (July 25).  How very brave of Sen. Deeds!  See the article here.

Separated at Birth:Virginia politicians seem immune to calls for discissions on specific issues.  Most are happy to avoid the issues, avoid debate and run the printing presses to churn out campaign signs for median strips and roadsides throughout the state.  That was certainly Sen. Deeds’ approach in the recent primary.  However, Deeds has a more agressive and effective opponent than he had in the primary.  I believe that Bob McDonnell should steal an idea from the campaign of Tim Kaine and dress up a person in a duck suit to follow Sen. Deeds around emphasizing Deeds’ willingness to ”duck” a debate of the issues.  For my part, I will refer to Sen. Deeds exclusively as Sen. Creigh “Daffy Duck(er)” Deeds until he summons up sufficient calcium to go from scyphozoa to vertebrate.  Meanwhile, inquiring minds want to know – were these two twins separated at birth:

"It's Duck Season"

"It's debate season"

Why Deeds Will Win

My prediction:  I am calling tomorrow’s VA Democratic gubenatorial primary for Creigh Deeds. Here’s why:

1. Mr. Moran is too far left – even for the Democratic primary voters.
2. McAuliffe and Moran will split the NoVa vote.
3. Many Democratic primary voters will see Creigh Deeds as the best (perhaps only) candidate who can (possibly) beat McDonnell this fall. The last AG race where Deeds barely lost to McDonnell has been instructive for Virginia Democrats. I believe that many of the party faithful are worried about McDonnell – who, in my opinion, is an attractive candidate. The anti-Bush zeal is subsiding with each passing day and the Dems will have to work hard to keep the governor’s mansion.  That realization is giving Sen. Deeds a lot of momentum.

My frustration:  Having made my prediction, let me say that I expect to be disappointed tomorrow.  Sen. Deeds has run the usual Virginia “vote for me because I am a good guy” campaign. Both Moran and McAuliffe have been more forthright on the issues and more explicit with their plans.  Mr. Moran, in particular, deserves to be congratulated on his willingness to take a stand.  Sen. Deeds has run a typical “median strip sign” campaign.  One can only hope that he will “pick up the pace” if he is the nominee.

Everybody I know who knows Sen. Deeds tells me that he is a stand up guy.  He is seen as honest and dedicated to the Commonwealth.  His supporters cite his unwillingness to “go negative” as a prime example of his character.

But I believe Virginia needs more than a nice guy at this juncture.

If I am right, Virginia will (once again) have two status quo candidates running for governor.  While they are both good profesional politicians, neither brings much in the way of frest ideas to the table.  Terry McAuliffe has good ideas.  I would be very happy to see a McAuliffe – McDonnell race.  That would give Virginians a choice – “steady as she goes” vs “new and different”.  I am not taking sides here (at least not on the McAuliffe vs McDonnell question).  However, I will take sides in saying that I would have preferred a McAuliffe – McDonnell race to a Deeds – McDonnell race.  Perhaps Sen. Deeds will surprise me in the general election and start addressing the issues with more than, “transportation will be my top priority” talk.  And, perhaps I’ll be proven wrong tomorrow.  Terry McAuliffe has surprised a lot of people with his campaign, his stance on the issues and his growing popularity.  Maybe he’ll suprise me again.

Congratulations Langley!

Lacrosse Championship: I arrived in New York late last night to find a text message on my phone – Langley High School had just won the state championship lacrosse match in overtime. So, the best academic high school in the state (not counting magnet school Thomas Jefferson) now has a brand new athletic title to put up on the wall.

Go Saxons!

The Real Memorial Day

Remember: This weekend Americans will enjoy the three day Memorial Day weekend.  Parties will swing, swimming pools will open, Bar-B-Ques will sizzle.  This is a great holiday for fun and family.  But as we enjoy the start of summer and spend time with family and friends I think we should take a moment to remember the meaning of the day.  Memorial Day is intended to honor the men and women of the United States armed forces who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our country.  Unfortunately, far too many of our best men and women have fallen in the defense of the United States.  All deserve to be remembered and honored.  However, I will be thinking specifically about a patriot from my home town who lost his life defending the United States in 2003.  http://www.legacy.com/WashingtonPost/Soldier/Story.aspx?personid=3097342

VA Gov Poll – McD beats McA

New Poll - A new poll is being reported by the Swing State Project.  This site defines its mission as “Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country”.  One of those key races is the Virginia Guberatorial race.  Information from the April 25 – April 27 poll is included regarding who is leading the Democratic primary and who would win the November election.  It is largely in accordance with predictions made on this blog in the past.  Very interesting.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4868/vagov-mcauliffe-posts-big-lead-in-new-susa-poll-but-mcdonnell-leads-all-comers

VA Gov – Offshore Drilling

Overview:  This is the first in what I hope to be a series of posts about important issues and where Virginia’s candidates for governor stand on the issue.  I am not picking these issues in any particular order.  I will endeavor to stick to the facts until the section of the post titled “Groveton’s Grip”.  In that section I will provide my personal opinion on the matter.  It should be noted that I have yet to decide who I support for governor.  I will vote in the June 9 Democratic primary although I might well vote for Mr. McDonnell in November.  My thoughts on any given issue are only a component of my thoughts on any given candidate.  Also, I will endeavor to reference specifics on the candidate’s stance on the issue.  If anybody believes that I have misrepresented the candidate’s position on the issue – please leave a comment or send me an e-mail at Groveton@GMail.Com.  I will correct any proven mistakes.

Offshore drilling:This shouldn’t be too hard to define.  It’s the extraction of any natural resource from below the ground underwater.  Most people think of drilling for oil and natural gas via derricks out in the ocean.  I think that’s a fair definition.  Basically, “the people” own the mineral rights under the waters surrounding the United States.  The government, at its option, leases these rights to companies engaged in the energy business.  For a map of where these leases exist – look here.  As you can see, there is plenty of unleased space off the coast of Virginia.

Pros and cons - On the positive side offshore drilling produces oil and gas which help keep down the costs of energy.  It provides jobs and helps reduce America’s dependence on foreign energy.  On the negative side offshore drilling has the potential for accidents which can cause extreme ecological damage and the oil and gas rigs are ugly and unnatural – hurting the scenic beauty of the natural environment.  Finally, extracting oil and gas offshore increases supplies of those materials, reduces the cost of those materials and thereby provides a disincentive for conservation and alternative energy development.

The candidates and their positions:

Bob McDonnell -I think this is easy.  He’s strongly in favor of offshore drilling.  His official web site doesn’t seem to mention his position (that I can find) but Mr. McDonnell has been widely quoted as being in favor of offshore drilling.  The Appamatox Area News provided the following direct quote from Bob McDonnell, “Virginians need jobs and secure sources of domestic energy. A large part of the answer lies off our coast, out of sight from our beaches, but of great benefit to all our communities. As Governor I will ensure that we explore and develop our offshore energy resources. Our energy policy should not be either/or. It should be “all of the above.” I am equally committed to making Virginia a leader when it comes to research, development, and production of alternative sources of energy like solar, biomass, and wind. ” .  I believe Bob McDonnell has been clear on his position and I congratulate him on that clarity.  Whether you agree with his position or not – he is taking a stand on this matter.

Brian Moran -I think Mr. Moran’s position is equally clear.  He doesn’t support offshore drilling at all.  Like Mr. McDonnell, Mr. Moran’s web site is unclear on his position vis-a-vis offshore drilling.  As a side note, Moran’s web site section on issues is a whole lot better than McDonnell’s.  Hopefully, Bob McDonnell will improve this after the Democratic primary.  Mr. Moran’s public statements on offshore drilling (unlike his web site) are clear.  He is widely quoted as having said, “Twenty years ago the Exxon Valdez spill caused untold ecological damage and environmental harm. On a day like today we must consider the important environmental treasures here in Virginia. There is no stronger reminder of why we need alternative energy solutions, like offshore wind, rather than offshore drilling. We can’t solve our 21st century energy challenges with 19th century fossil fuels.”.  That seems clear enough to me.  As with Mr. McDonnell, I congratulate Mr. Moran on his clarity.

Terry McAuliffe -Mr. McAuliffe’s position on this is anything but clear.  A scan of his 30 page energy plan makes numerous references to “offshore” but all are in reference to offshore wind farms (which he loves).  There is no reference to “drilling”.  I have found no direct quote on his position and various pundits disagree as to where he stands.  Once upon a time the consensus of the blogosphere was that McAuliffe either a) favored exploration but reserved judgement on full scale drilling or b) favored drilling but only for natural gas.  Mr. McAuliffe – you need to take a position here.  There are only so many options – drill baby drill, now way – no how, explore for now – decide later, only natural gas.

Creigh Deeds -Like McAuliffe, Sen. Deeds’ position is ambiguous.  His web site has a section on the environment.  Unlike McAuliffe’s 30 page energy opus, Sen. Deeds section on The Environment was only 8 paragraphs long.  No mention of offshore drilling – one way or the other.  Likewise, direct quotes attributable to Sen. Deeds are absent.  Several sources say that Deeds is in favor of exploration but offer no direct quotes or references.  Sen. Deeds – you spend a lot of time talking about your 23 years of service to the Commonwealth.  You must have thought about this during that time.  Quit making us guess – what is your position?

Summary of candidate positions -McDonnell: drill, baby drill; Moran: now way, no how; McAuliffe: No stated position, Deeds: No stated position.

Groveton’s Grip: It’s all risk reward.  Everybody in the know thinks there is oil and gas under the sea off Virginia but nobody knows how much.  Estimates vary between 130 million barrels and 900 billion barrels.  Yeah – you read that right, between 130 MILLION and 900 BILLION.  That’s a big difference!  I say explore now.  There is no good reason to say yes or no to full scale drilling until the size of the prize is known.  If it’s on the 130 million end – no way.  But 900 billion?  Or ever 20% of that?  Drill baby drill.

VA Gov – Song Sung Blue

Summary:  The issues don’t seem to be holding much attention in the Virginia governor’s race.  I believe that will change as we near the June 9 Democratic Primary.  I also think (and hope) that the issues will become the centerpiece of the general election in November.  However, there is one issue that I am willing to put forward right now – the issue of campaign songs.  Few people know that the Commonwealth of Virginia does not have a state song.  We have a state fish (brook trout), a state bird (the Northern Cardinal) and a state insect (tiger swallowtail butterfly) but we do not have a state song.

Carry Me Back to Old Virginny – From 1940 to 1997 the official state song was Carry Me Back to Old Virginny (slightly reworded from the original using Virginia instead of Virginny).  On January 28, 1997 the ever vigilant state legislature relegated the song to “state song emeritus” because of its (possibly) racist overtones.  The song portrays the thoughts of a recently freed slave who, in parts, seems nostalgic for his former days as a slave.  There are certainly some lyrics that make a person cringe.  The lyrics of the original song can be found on Wikipedia at   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carry_Me_Back_to_Old_Virginny.

Reading the lyrics gives credence to the thought that the song is racist – especially for a song that was the state song for almost 40 years.  If a standard-issue white redneck had written the song then there would be no controversy.  It would be obviously a racist song.  However, it was written by a well educated African American, James A. Bland (1854 – 1911).  Bland grew up in New York and was educated in DC at Howard University.  He wrote over 700 ballads.  Some believe that the intelligent and erudite Mr. Bland wrote the song with an ironic tongue in cheek poking fun at some post – reconstruction European Americans who made the indefensible claim that maybe slavery wasn’t all that bad.  Given that Mr. Bland has been posthumously inducted into the Songwriters Hall of Fame (1970) I think it safe to assume that the song had a rather full dose of sarcasm.  After all Mr. Bland also wrote On Dem Golden Slippers which became the unofficial song of the Mummers Parade.  Even with the notoriety of the Mummers, more remember the song as remade into the commercial “Oh those golden grahams”.  In any regard, I have to agree with the GA in retiring a song that could be seen as racist.

The New State Song - Once the old song was retired a study committee initiated a search for a new state song.  The GA suspended the contest in 2000 but then re-instated the contest recently.  Meanwhile, a state Senate panel voted to designate Shenandoah as the “interim official state song”.  Sadly, on March 1, 2006 the House Rules Committee voted down bill SB682 which would have made Shenandoah the official state song.  The whole matter went on the scrap heap of General Assembly history along with a transportation plan, abusive driver fees and energy policy.  But this song thing gets me mad.  We need a state song.  Maryland has a state song.  Tennessee has five state songs including Rocky Top.

My proposal - There are four men running for Governor of Virginia this year.  Each of them should pick a song from among the songs listed in the link below (you can download some, stream some – all free).  Whoever wins the election gets their campaign song enshrined as the official state song of Virginia.

http://songsinthekeyofhope.com/rockin_in_the_free_world

Note: For authentic Virginians – The Gladstones, Chicken Head Blues Band, American Dumpster and Tim & Jessie Ryan are all Virginia – based musicians.

Which song was your favorite?

Deeds Heeds 2006?

Deja Vu all Over Again? – I can’t remember the last time there was a Democratic primary for governor.  Kaine was unopposed for the nomination in 2005.  Warner was unopposed in 2001.  Don Beyer was unopposed in 1997 and anything before that would have represented a Virginia so different from today that it’s not worth considering (in my opinion).  So, how can we analyze this year’s Democratic primary for Governor – to be held June 9?  The best I can conceive is the 2006 statewide election of US Senator.  Jim Webb defeated lobbyist Harris Miller in the 2006 Democratic primary by a 53% to 47% margin.  Webb went on to win the general election over incumbent George Allen with a razor thin margin of victory (49.59% vs. 49.2%).  The general election included the famous (or infamous) Meccaca comment from Sen. Allen.  There are certainly some major differences between 2006 and 2009.  First, 2006 was a national election with all US House members and 1/3 of the US Senate (including George Allen) up for re-election.  There were no state legislature seats up that year (outside of a few special elections).  The governor’s race was still three years away.  There were only two candidates in the primary (Webb and Miller) as opposed to the three candidates running for the Democratic nomination on June 9 (McAuliffe, Moran and Deeds).  However, there was a statewide Democratic primary and I think that bears analysis.

Data Centered Blogging - I am experimenting with a concept I call Data Centered Blogging.  Under this concept certain blog entries are numeric analyses of available data rather than raw opinion or references to newspaper articles and other blogs.  In a perfect world the base data would be stored as a database giving all blog participants read only access to the database and providing tools for the participant to “slice and dice” the data.    But the world is not perfect.  I don’t have a database yet.  What I have is a Google spreadsheet with voter turnout data from the 2006 statewide election.  I will draw some conclusions from that data later in this post.  I also invite you to look at the data and draw conclusions of your own.  I have allowed view access but not update access to the spreadsheet.  If anybody would like update access – please send me a request at Groveton@GMail.Com and I’ll try to add you as a collaborator.  I will be adding data to this spreadsheet so it will expand over time.  You should not have to be signed into Google to view the spreadsheet.  Here is the link:http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rPz4MHjPSQC3Ss7vnNd85PQ&hl=en

Overall Analysis - The primary was a low turnout event with only 3.58% of qualified voters voting in the primary.  The turnout for the primary varied greatly by jurisdiction with Falls Church City leading the way with 12.55% of qualified voters voting in the Democratic primary.  Powhatan county took the low end with 1.1% of qualified voters voting.  The general election had a much greater participation with 53.11% of qualified voters casting votes.  Falls Church City again had the greatest percentage participation with  66.41%.   Manassas City came in last with only 37.21% of qualified voters voting in the general election.  The jurisdictions also varied in how actively they voted in the primary vs. general election.  The biggest gainer was Goochland County where only 2.06% of qualified voters voted in the Democratic primary (vs. a state-wide average of 3.58%) yet 66.22% of Goochland’s voters voted in the general election (vs. a statewide average of 53.11%).  It’s probably no surprise that George Allen crushed Jim Webb in Goochland (61% to 39%).  It seems there is plenty of interest in voting but few Democrats.  The biggest decline was in Manassas Park City where 1.43% voted in the primary (vs. a 3.58% mean) and 37.21% voted in the general election (vs. 53.11% average).  I guess they just don’t like voting in Manassas Park City.  Perhaps a better example is Alexandria City where 7.71% voted in the primary (almost twice the state average) but only 51.3% voted in the general election (below the state average).  Webb immolated Allen in Alexandria with a 71% to 29% victory.

Implications for Deeds - If Virginia’s Republicans were forced to vote for one of the three Democratic contenders I think Deeds would win in a landslide.  Of course, Republicans won’t be forced to vote for a Democrat – the vast majority will vote for Bob McDonnell in November.  But what about June?  A lot can happen between the primary and general election.  Skeletons could come out of McDonnell’s closet.  He could say something stupid.  God forbid, he could get sick.  Shouldn’t Republicans want a palatable alternative if something goes wromg in the McDonnell general election campaign?  If 2006 is any lesson, there will be plenty of reliably Republican jurisdictions that will have very low turnout (by voter count and percentage) in the Democratic primary.  These same locales will send plenty of people to the polls in November.  Can Deeds convince them to “hedge their bets” by voting for him in the Democratic primary?  Is this legal?  Is this ethical?

VA Governor – How to Win

Overall - The Virginia governor’s race is tightening by the day as the Democratic primary looms (June 9).  The Democrats have also taken a long, hard look at Bob McDonnell and they don’t like what they see.  That’s because they see a very electable, popular candidate with a 50% favorable rating and an 18% unfavorable rating.  The Dems have started dishing the dirt without waiting for their own primary.  Meanwhile, McDonnell has been throwing a few punches of his own with ads showing the various Democratic candidates giving speeches to half full rooms.  The GOP camera-people spend a lot of time panning over empty chairs.  Nationally, this election (and one other for governor of New Jersey) is increasingly seen as a bellwether for the US political climate ahead of the 2010 congressional elections.  Bottom line – the gloves are off and the slap fight has started.

McDonnell - Attorney General Bob McDonnell seems to have a lot of momentum.  He has strong support in urban and urbanizing areas (which is becoming the key to winning in Virginia).  The GOP has been considerably more effective in Virginia than nationally – especially of late.  The Dems only won Brian Moran’s old seat by 16 votes, Sharon Bulova won the Fairfax County BoS chairman post with 50.4% of the vote.  Obama took 60% of the votes in Fairfax County only two months prior.  The unifying hatred of George Bush is evaporating quickly as Dubya fades from memory.  McDonnell is honing his candidate skills mixing humor and emotion in his increasingly effective campaign speeches.  Best of all for Mr. McDonnell – he’s not involved in a primary unlike his three potential opponents.  The Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) may be mired in a suicidal internecine battle but McDonnell remains strong.  The Dems have already started their anti-McDonnell attacks by portraying him as a typically too conservative Republican in moderate’s clothing.  They link him to Pat Robertson and Rush Limbaugh.  I guess the Dems have decided that the GOP effort to discredit Barack Obama through Rev. Wright had some merit after all.  McDonnell has also shown the great good sense to copy Terry McAuliffe’s mantra of bringing jobs to Virginia.

Creigh Deeds - Sen. Deeds is like the little engine that could.  He just keeps going.  The only candidate with a base in rural Virginia, Deeds is trying to channel Howlin’ Henry Howell with an “aw shucks” campaign that is long on anti-big business sentiment and populist commentary.  His greatest strength may be that (unlike his two Democratic opponents) he is not from Northern Virginia.  A low turnout primary replete with the usual grass root fanatics might be just what the doctor ordered.  A typical primary will have 3 – 5% of eligible voters casting ballots.  These die-hards are more prevalent outside of Northern Virginia than within NoVa.  Low turnout elections favor tenure and political reputation over money and media.  Deeds ought to be hoping for a minor hurricane on June 9.  Either that or he should be starting a big-time “Republicans for Deeds” campaign in the hope of bringing some Republicans to the Democratic primary.  The appeal to the GOP voters would be simple – Deeds is a whole lot more palatable to Republicans than either Moran or McAuliffe.  Deeds is a conservative’s best case among the Democrats and the Republicans aren’t holding a primary.  

Brian Moran - Mr. Moran thought he had this nomination in the bag back in December.  If it’s just he and Creigh Deeds then Moran takes the urban vote and wins.  But a funny thing happened on the way to the general election – Terry McAuliffe decided to run for governor.  Suddenly there are two urban guys in the race and Brian Moran isn’t even the one with the national party support.  Moran has made the logical decision to become the liberal’s liberal in the primary.  Campaigning as a true progressive he has staked out left leaning positions on each and every issue.  If the stalwarts dominate the primary he has a chance of being the candidate.  Of course, all this liberalism may win the primary but will come back to haunt Mr. Moran in the general election if he is the candidate.  One can only assume that McDonnell (perhaps along with Pat Robertson)is praying for  a Moran victory.  Moran is stressing the support of local officials and trying to run against McAuliffe as an “anti-carpetbagger”.  This can get almost surreal as Mr. Moran pleads his case for being a real Virginian with a fairly thick Boston accent.  

Terry McAuliffe - McAuliffe is campaigning like he has nothing to lose.  He is straddling the populist line of Creigh Deeds and the economic development line of Bob McDonnell.  McAuliffe hopes to liberal enough to like but not so liberal to be unacceptable in southern Virginia.  He is running as an outsider and a self-made businessman.  Not all good ideas come from Richmond has become his catch phrase.  He invented the theme of jobs for Virginia which McDonnell promptly (and wisely) copied.  McAuliffe has recently been campaigning with Bill Clinton although the attendance at these rallies has been much lighter than expected.  McAuliffe needs a big turnout in the primary as much as Deeds needs a small turnout.  He needs to use his considerable campaign funds to compensate for the usual zealots who vote in party primaries.  McAuliffe’s lack of tenure in Virginia politics means that he lacks the long time faithful that each of the other canidates count in their base.  And it’s the faithful who vote in primaries.

How to win the general election -

McDonnell vs. Moran - McDonnell pounds Moran as too liberal.  He benefits from Bush being gone and reminds the electorate that the Dems control the much hated US Congress including a certain Rep. Jim Moran.  Moran tries to tun back the clock by presenting McDonnell as a dyed in the wool conservative Republican in the mold of George W. Bush.  My opinion?  McDonnell would crush Moran in the general election.  Brian Moran, like his brother Jim, has regional appeal in relatively small, relatively liberal areas.  But Alexandria is the exception in Virginia not the rule.

McDonnell vs. Deeds - Deeds seeks to take the majority in rural Virginia, get the lion’s share of urban areas like Petersburg and keep close in Northern Virginia.  McDonnell consolidates a strong base in Tidewater with majorities in suburban and exurban Virginia.  The question of who is more the “native son” is pretty much moot with these two candidates.  Deeds plays up his status as a moderate and casts McDonnell as too conservative for most of Virginia.  In my opinion, McDonnell’s urban strength beats Deeds.

McDonnell vs. McAuliffe - This is the hardest contest to call.  McDonnell tries to use the carpetbagger tag on McAuliffe but finds that plays better in a primary than a general election.  He eventually settles on “Terry the Taxer” as the costs of McAuliffe’s aggressive programs become more clear.  McAuliffe lines up Webb, Warner and Kaine to say McDonnell will undo all of the progress they have made.  McDonnell hits back with the law and order crowd by reminding everybody that he’s both a former Army officer and a a prosecuter.  The Dems spend a lot of money linking Bob McDonnell to Pat Robertson and the GOP attacks McAuliffe for his role with Global Crossing.  Today, I’d give the nod to McDonnell but McAuliffe has surpised me since he announced his candidacy in January.  McAuliffe has proven to be less of a dilettante than everybody expected, hit a great note with his “jobs for Virginia” and will be floating on an ocean of money.

Next Blog(s): The issues.