VA Governor – How to Win

Overall - The Virginia governor’s race is tightening by the day as the Democratic primary looms (June 9).  The Democrats have also taken a long, hard look at Bob McDonnell and they don’t like what they see.  That’s because they see a very electable, popular candidate with a 50% favorable rating and an 18% unfavorable rating.  The Dems have started dishing the dirt without waiting for their own primary.  Meanwhile, McDonnell has been throwing a few punches of his own with ads showing the various Democratic candidates giving speeches to half full rooms.  The GOP camera-people spend a lot of time panning over empty chairs.  Nationally, this election (and one other for governor of New Jersey) is increasingly seen as a bellwether for the US political climate ahead of the 2010 congressional elections.  Bottom line – the gloves are off and the slap fight has started.

McDonnell - Attorney General Bob McDonnell seems to have a lot of momentum.  He has strong support in urban and urbanizing areas (which is becoming the key to winning in Virginia).  The GOP has been considerably more effective in Virginia than nationally – especially of late.  The Dems only won Brian Moran’s old seat by 16 votes, Sharon Bulova won the Fairfax County BoS chairman post with 50.4% of the vote.  Obama took 60% of the votes in Fairfax County only two months prior.  The unifying hatred of George Bush is evaporating quickly as Dubya fades from memory.  McDonnell is honing his candidate skills mixing humor and emotion in his increasingly effective campaign speeches.  Best of all for Mr. McDonnell – he’s not involved in a primary unlike his three potential opponents.  The Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) may be mired in a suicidal internecine battle but McDonnell remains strong.  The Dems have already started their anti-McDonnell attacks by portraying him as a typically too conservative Republican in moderate’s clothing.  They link him to Pat Robertson and Rush Limbaugh.  I guess the Dems have decided that the GOP effort to discredit Barack Obama through Rev. Wright had some merit after all.  McDonnell has also shown the great good sense to copy Terry McAuliffe’s mantra of bringing jobs to Virginia.

Creigh Deeds - Sen. Deeds is like the little engine that could.  He just keeps going.  The only candidate with a base in rural Virginia, Deeds is trying to channel Howlin’ Henry Howell with an “aw shucks” campaign that is long on anti-big business sentiment and populist commentary.  His greatest strength may be that (unlike his two Democratic opponents) he is not from Northern Virginia.  A low turnout primary replete with the usual grass root fanatics might be just what the doctor ordered.  A typical primary will have 3 – 5% of eligible voters casting ballots.  These die-hards are more prevalent outside of Northern Virginia than within NoVa.  Low turnout elections favor tenure and political reputation over money and media.  Deeds ought to be hoping for a minor hurricane on June 9.  Either that or he should be starting a big-time “Republicans for Deeds” campaign in the hope of bringing some Republicans to the Democratic primary.  The appeal to the GOP voters would be simple – Deeds is a whole lot more palatable to Republicans than either Moran or McAuliffe.  Deeds is a conservative’s best case among the Democrats and the Republicans aren’t holding a primary.  

Brian Moran - Mr. Moran thought he had this nomination in the bag back in December.  If it’s just he and Creigh Deeds then Moran takes the urban vote and wins.  But a funny thing happened on the way to the general election – Terry McAuliffe decided to run for governor.  Suddenly there are two urban guys in the race and Brian Moran isn’t even the one with the national party support.  Moran has made the logical decision to become the liberal’s liberal in the primary.  Campaigning as a true progressive he has staked out left leaning positions on each and every issue.  If the stalwarts dominate the primary he has a chance of being the candidate.  Of course, all this liberalism may win the primary but will come back to haunt Mr. Moran in the general election if he is the candidate.  One can only assume that McDonnell (perhaps along with Pat Robertson)is praying for  a Moran victory.  Moran is stressing the support of local officials and trying to run against McAuliffe as an “anti-carpetbagger”.  This can get almost surreal as Mr. Moran pleads his case for being a real Virginian with a fairly thick Boston accent.  

Terry McAuliffe - McAuliffe is campaigning like he has nothing to lose.  He is straddling the populist line of Creigh Deeds and the economic development line of Bob McDonnell.  McAuliffe hopes to liberal enough to like but not so liberal to be unacceptable in southern Virginia.  He is running as an outsider and a self-made businessman.  Not all good ideas come from Richmond has become his catch phrase.  He invented the theme of jobs for Virginia which McDonnell promptly (and wisely) copied.  McAuliffe has recently been campaigning with Bill Clinton although the attendance at these rallies has been much lighter than expected.  McAuliffe needs a big turnout in the primary as much as Deeds needs a small turnout.  He needs to use his considerable campaign funds to compensate for the usual zealots who vote in party primaries.  McAuliffe’s lack of tenure in Virginia politics means that he lacks the long time faithful that each of the other canidates count in their base.  And it’s the faithful who vote in primaries.

How to win the general election -

McDonnell vs. Moran - McDonnell pounds Moran as too liberal.  He benefits from Bush being gone and reminds the electorate that the Dems control the much hated US Congress including a certain Rep. Jim Moran.  Moran tries to tun back the clock by presenting McDonnell as a dyed in the wool conservative Republican in the mold of George W. Bush.  My opinion?  McDonnell would crush Moran in the general election.  Brian Moran, like his brother Jim, has regional appeal in relatively small, relatively liberal areas.  But Alexandria is the exception in Virginia not the rule.

McDonnell vs. Deeds - Deeds seeks to take the majority in rural Virginia, get the lion’s share of urban areas like Petersburg and keep close in Northern Virginia.  McDonnell consolidates a strong base in Tidewater with majorities in suburban and exurban Virginia.  The question of who is more the “native son” is pretty much moot with these two candidates.  Deeds plays up his status as a moderate and casts McDonnell as too conservative for most of Virginia.  In my opinion, McDonnell’s urban strength beats Deeds.

McDonnell vs. McAuliffe - This is the hardest contest to call.  McDonnell tries to use the carpetbagger tag on McAuliffe but finds that plays better in a primary than a general election.  He eventually settles on “Terry the Taxer” as the costs of McAuliffe’s aggressive programs become more clear.  McAuliffe lines up Webb, Warner and Kaine to say McDonnell will undo all of the progress they have made.  McDonnell hits back with the law and order crowd by reminding everybody that he’s both a former Army officer and a a prosecuter.  The Dems spend a lot of money linking Bob McDonnell to Pat Robertson and the GOP attacks McAuliffe for his role with Global Crossing.  Today, I’d give the nod to McDonnell but McAuliffe has surpised me since he announced his candidacy in January.  McAuliffe has proven to be less of a dilettante than everybody expected, hit a great note with his “jobs for Virginia” and will be floating on an ocean of money.

Next Blog(s): The issues.