Deeds Heeds 2006?

Deja Vu all Over Again? – I can’t remember the last time there was a Democratic primary for governor.  Kaine was unopposed for the nomination in 2005.  Warner was unopposed in 2001.  Don Beyer was unopposed in 1997 and anything before that would have represented a Virginia so different from today that it’s not worth considering (in my opinion).  So, how can we analyze this year’s Democratic primary for Governor – to be held June 9?  The best I can conceive is the 2006 statewide election of US Senator.  Jim Webb defeated lobbyist Harris Miller in the 2006 Democratic primary by a 53% to 47% margin.  Webb went on to win the general election over incumbent George Allen with a razor thin margin of victory (49.59% vs. 49.2%).  The general election included the famous (or infamous) Meccaca comment from Sen. Allen.  There are certainly some major differences between 2006 and 2009.  First, 2006 was a national election with all US House members and 1/3 of the US Senate (including George Allen) up for re-election.  There were no state legislature seats up that year (outside of a few special elections).  The governor’s race was still three years away.  There were only two candidates in the primary (Webb and Miller) as opposed to the three candidates running for the Democratic nomination on June 9 (McAuliffe, Moran and Deeds).  However, there was a statewide Democratic primary and I think that bears analysis.

Data Centered Blogging - I am experimenting with a concept I call Data Centered Blogging.  Under this concept certain blog entries are numeric analyses of available data rather than raw opinion or references to newspaper articles and other blogs.  In a perfect world the base data would be stored as a database giving all blog participants read only access to the database and providing tools for the participant to “slice and dice” the data.    But the world is not perfect.  I don’t have a database yet.  What I have is a Google spreadsheet with voter turnout data from the 2006 statewide election.  I will draw some conclusions from that data later in this post.  I also invite you to look at the data and draw conclusions of your own.  I have allowed view access but not update access to the spreadsheet.  If anybody would like update access – please send me a request at Groveton@GMail.Com and I’ll try to add you as a collaborator.  I will be adding data to this spreadsheet so it will expand over time.  You should not have to be signed into Google to view the spreadsheet.  Here is the link:http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rPz4MHjPSQC3Ss7vnNd85PQ&hl=en

Overall Analysis - The primary was a low turnout event with only 3.58% of qualified voters voting in the primary.  The turnout for the primary varied greatly by jurisdiction with Falls Church City leading the way with 12.55% of qualified voters voting in the Democratic primary.  Powhatan county took the low end with 1.1% of qualified voters voting.  The general election had a much greater participation with 53.11% of qualified voters casting votes.  Falls Church City again had the greatest percentage participation with  66.41%.   Manassas City came in last with only 37.21% of qualified voters voting in the general election.  The jurisdictions also varied in how actively they voted in the primary vs. general election.  The biggest gainer was Goochland County where only 2.06% of qualified voters voted in the Democratic primary (vs. a state-wide average of 3.58%) yet 66.22% of Goochland’s voters voted in the general election (vs. a statewide average of 53.11%).  It’s probably no surprise that George Allen crushed Jim Webb in Goochland (61% to 39%).  It seems there is plenty of interest in voting but few Democrats.  The biggest decline was in Manassas Park City where 1.43% voted in the primary (vs. a 3.58% mean) and 37.21% voted in the general election (vs. 53.11% average).  I guess they just don’t like voting in Manassas Park City.  Perhaps a better example is Alexandria City where 7.71% voted in the primary (almost twice the state average) but only 51.3% voted in the general election (below the state average).  Webb immolated Allen in Alexandria with a 71% to 29% victory.

Implications for Deeds - If Virginia’s Republicans were forced to vote for one of the three Democratic contenders I think Deeds would win in a landslide.  Of course, Republicans won’t be forced to vote for a Democrat – the vast majority will vote for Bob McDonnell in November.  But what about June?  A lot can happen between the primary and general election.  Skeletons could come out of McDonnell’s closet.  He could say something stupid.  God forbid, he could get sick.  Shouldn’t Republicans want a palatable alternative if something goes wromg in the McDonnell general election campaign?  If 2006 is any lesson, there will be plenty of reliably Republican jurisdictions that will have very low turnout (by voter count and percentage) in the Democratic primary.  These same locales will send plenty of people to the polls in November.  Can Deeds convince them to “hedge their bets” by voting for him in the Democratic primary?  Is this legal?  Is this ethical?