Why Deeds Will Win

My prediction:  I am calling tomorrow’s VA Democratic gubenatorial primary for Creigh Deeds. Here’s why:

1. Mr. Moran is too far left – even for the Democratic primary voters.
2. McAuliffe and Moran will split the NoVa vote.
3. Many Democratic primary voters will see Creigh Deeds as the best (perhaps only) candidate who can (possibly) beat McDonnell this fall. The last AG race where Deeds barely lost to McDonnell has been instructive for Virginia Democrats. I believe that many of the party faithful are worried about McDonnell – who, in my opinion, is an attractive candidate. The anti-Bush zeal is subsiding with each passing day and the Dems will have to work hard to keep the governor’s mansion.  That realization is giving Sen. Deeds a lot of momentum.

My frustration:  Having made my prediction, let me say that I expect to be disappointed tomorrow.  Sen. Deeds has run the usual Virginia “vote for me because I am a good guy” campaign. Both Moran and McAuliffe have been more forthright on the issues and more explicit with their plans.  Mr. Moran, in particular, deserves to be congratulated on his willingness to take a stand.  Sen. Deeds has run a typical “median strip sign” campaign.  One can only hope that he will “pick up the pace” if he is the nominee.

Everybody I know who knows Sen. Deeds tells me that he is a stand up guy.  He is seen as honest and dedicated to the Commonwealth.  His supporters cite his unwillingness to “go negative” as a prime example of his character.

But I believe Virginia needs more than a nice guy at this juncture.

If I am right, Virginia will (once again) have two status quo candidates running for governor.  While they are both good profesional politicians, neither brings much in the way of frest ideas to the table.  Terry McAuliffe has good ideas.  I would be very happy to see a McAuliffe – McDonnell race.  That would give Virginians a choice – “steady as she goes” vs “new and different”.  I am not taking sides here (at least not on the McAuliffe vs McDonnell question).  However, I will take sides in saying that I would have preferred a McAuliffe – McDonnell race to a Deeds – McDonnell race.  Perhaps Sen. Deeds will surprise me in the general election and start addressing the issues with more than, “transportation will be my top priority” talk.  And, perhaps I’ll be proven wrong tomorrow.  Terry McAuliffe has surprised a lot of people with his campaign, his stance on the issues and his growing popularity.  Maybe he’ll suprise me again.