NVTC Governors’ Cage Match

Background - Last Friday I attended the Northern Virginia Technology Council (NVTC ) meeting where all four of Virginia’s gubernatorial candidates met.  The format was one four minute speech with the other three candidates on stage.  Then, three of the four candidates left the stage (and were presumably transported out of earshot).  One candidate faced the crowd and answered 3 sets of questions in broad categories.  The order of the four minute speeches and the order that the candidates faced the Q&A sessions were drawn by lot.  The question categories were the same for each candidate.  However, the questions were all from the audience and differed from one candidate to the next.  Each candidate had 7 minutes to answer audience questions asked in each of the three categories.  So, each candidate spoke or answered questions for 25 minutes (4 minute speech + three 7 minute Q&A sessions).  All in all I thought the session was brilliantly organized and well run.  My personal thanks go out to the NVTC and the host for the session – Microsoft.

First Impressions

Swimsuit Contest- The four candidates were Republican Bob McDonnell (Attorney General, Va Beach), Rep. Brian Moran (D, Springfield), Sen. Creigh Deeds (D, Bath County) and Terry McAulliffe (D, McLean).  The three Democrats will face each other in a primary to be held on June 9.  Mr. McDonnell is running unopposed for the Republican nomination and will almost certainly be the Republican nominee for the November race.

Creigh (pronounced Cree) Deeds seemed nervous.  He jesticulated too much.  He seemed like a guy someone told to emphasize his statements with hand jestures.  However, he also exuded honesty and believability.  He came across as a genuinely nice man and his southern Virginia accent was the only accent in the bunch that was consistent (more on that later).  During his four minute speech Sen. Deeds emphasized his experience citing his 22 years of leadership.

 

Terry McAulliffe came across as over-animated as well.  He had a bit of the nerdy political junkie thing going.  His opening remarks revolved around the theme that “not all good ideas come from Richmond.”.  He established himself as a successful businessman who had turned around a number of struggling companies and made them successes.  He portrayed himself as a blue collar kid who made it big and an outsider to Virginia politics.

 

Bob McDonnell was the smooth politician who was witty one minute and steely the next.  He talked about growing up in Fairfax County (where his mother still lives in the house where he grew up), his career in the US Army and his tenure as Attorney General.   He spoke with the ambiguous accent of many Northern Virginians.

 

 

Brian Moran was tall and had something of the stand up comic in his presentation.  He talked about his 20 years of service, his family, awards he has gotten and how he sees himself as a legacy of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.  He was the consummate Virginia Democrat.  Unfortunately, he had some of the smirky facial expressions of a college frat boy.  He also tried to lay on a southern facade with a few y’alls but was given away by his almost genetic Boston accent.

Bob McDonnell made the best first impression followed by McAulliffe, Deeds and then Moran.

 Details

Brian Moran

Moran started with a sing song discussion of ”Galax to Fairfax”.  He invoked memories of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine repeatedly.  He discussed his trip to India and the importance of Virginia being competitive not just against other states but on the global stage as well.  He talked generically about transportation and the quality of life in Virginia.  Finally, he talked about his family – Congressman Jim Moran and his brother who works for Microsoft (and was in the audience). 

Bob McDonnell

AG McDonnell began by noting that Fairfax County had the highest concentration of technology workers in Virginia.  He talked about his time as Attorney General and how he worked with Gov. Kaine to protect kids on the Internet.  He talked about economic development in Virginia and spoke of making Virginia a hub for film production and tourism.  He said he’d cut the red tape required to get a film shoot approved in Virginia and make Virginia the energy capital of America with a combination of clean coal, nuclear, offshore drilling and alternate energy.  He supported Virginia’s right to work laws and spoke against the card check law.  He hoped that the national government would avoid protectionist legislation.  He declared immigration to be a federal issue although he wanted to increase the number of legal immigrants holding visas for technology and scientiific skills.  He supports charter schools and Rail To Dulles.  He wants to widen I-66 and believes in the Rt 460 – Craney (sp?) port project in Tidewater.

Sen. Deeds

Sen. Deeds noted that unemployment in Virginia is higher than it has been in 17 years.  He is dedicated to job creation – especially in energy based research.  He favors an expanded community college system.  He wants to continue many of the policies of the Warner Administration.  He says we must face the transportation issue and may have to discuss “revenue” as part of that challenge.  He dislikes the modern day approach of pitting one part of Virginia against another.  He’d like to connect communities with broadband internet.

Terry McAulliffe

Mr. McAulliffe began by rattling off a number of unemployment statistics in Virginia such as Martinsville at 20.2%.  He stressed his interest in creating jobs in the Commonwealth saying that he would get stimulus money from the federal government and would personally go from company to company trying to convince the companies to relocate to Virginia.  He declared transportation to be a mess and said we need more roads.  He reminded those who say that they don’t want to pay for NoVa roads that NoVa probably doesn’t want to pay for other regions’ schools.  He promised to dillute the Dillon Rule.  He talked about the year 2018 as the year Virginia will no longer qualify for federal matching funds in transportation since we are underfunding our own transportation system.  He put forth the idea of commercializing the patents being developed at Virginia universities citing the $500 per year that Florida gains from this practice.

 

Summary

I have not decided who I will support.  This was a good introductory meeting but was far from a debate on the issues of the day.  I think any of the four men would make good governors with the possible exception of Brian Moran who just didn’t seem all that serious about the issues.

ESPN saves RPV

ESPN -For those who either ignore everything to do with sports or have been living under a rock for the past 30+ years, let me tell you a bit about ESPN.  ESPN is a multi-channel sports and entertainment company owned (now) by the Walt Disney Company.  It’s focus is sports and it is best known for it’s cable channel shows that cover a wide variety of sporting events.  ESPN provides original coverage, covers sporting events under license from the leagues (example: Monday Night Football), etc.  However, it is ESPN’s web sites that interest me in regard to politics.  More on that later.

Virginia’s Republican Party -The Virginia Republican Party is just getting mashed lately.  It all started with George Allen and his infamous mecaca comment.  Then came Obama, Warner and Gerry Connolly (among others).  The last two elections have been routs.  And the RPV answer?  Elect a new 35 year old chairman, blame the news media and Northern Virginia liberalism.  Jim Gilmore says his recent defeat was largely caused by faulty news coverage of his campaign.  Many commentators have claimed that Virginia has become more Democratic and liberal as droves of bagel munching, gun hating New Yorkers have moved into Northern Virginia.  The Republican Party of Virginia has become an excuse machine of epic proportion.  In early 2009 there will be a local contest to fill the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman position.  While only a local race, it will be a harbinger of things to come.  Later in 2009 will come the big kahuna of state elections – the governor’s race.  In my opinion, everything points to two more losses for the RPV in these elections ( as well as others).  Virginia is well on its way to being a completely Democratic state on the order of Maryland if not Massachusetts.  And that will be bad.  While I don’t systematically favor either party I believe that two healthy parties are necessary for a healthy Virginia.

RPV Media Campaigns - They suck eggs.  Lame web sites and yard signs.  It’s actually pathetic.  And, as the Republicans fade from power, donations will get smaller, fewer and farther between.  Meaning less money for the few, poorly developed television advertisements that they manage to run during each campaign.  This media meltdown will simply cause less voter engagement leaving Virginia as a one party state.  The last time we were a one party state, the same party that is taking control now was pushing abominations like Massive Resistance.  Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  Ask Illinois.  In Virginia the Democratic Party stands on the precipice of absolute power.

Republicans as Underdog (unmute your volume control) -

The Republican Party of Virginia needs to go from Humble Shoe Shine Boy to Underdog.  But how?

Back to ESPN -Well, actually, first a bit of background on fantasy football.  For those un-American souls who don’t know what a fantasy football league does – let me quickly explain.  Fantasy football is a group of people who simulate owning or coaching an NFL team for fun.  Usually, the group gets together once a year and forms into teams.  A typical fantasy football league might have 10 teams with 3 – 5 real people on each team.  During the once-a-year meeting each team drafts in round after round.  The teams draft individual NFL players who will be “on their squad” for the season.  The players may come from any NFL team.  Each week each team “starts” a subset of the players they drafted.  Scores are assigned based on the play of the real NFL player during the football game.  One team wins each week and one team wins the year.  Fantasy football is a game for NFL fans.  It is a casual and informal subculture of NFL fans.  It is harmless.  It is useless.  Unless, of course, you are ESPN.  Fantasy players represent a group of highly motivated sports fans who must get news and information each and every week of the NFL season.  After all, it makes no sense to start a player who is hurt, suspended, serving time, etc.  And ESPN long ago decided to be the place where fantasy football players would go for information.

ESPN’s dillema -here’s my take on ESPN’s thinking.  Fantasy football players represent a small but dedicated set of potential customers.  There are too few to justify a full on-air program.  But the people in fantasy football are a great demographic for advertisers.  They are usually relatively young, affluent and sports fans.  So, how does ESPN reach this demographic without spending an exorbitant amount of money broadcasting a full cable program?  It’s the Internet, stupid!  ESPN addresses the overall fan base of the NFL through cable programming (and some of its web sites).  It addresses the fantasy sub-segment through Internet programming and specialized web sites.  Now, let me be clear – ESPN is very, very good at this.  I will undoubtedly fail to cover all the factors in their success.  But let me try to point out the keys:

1. A great, specialized web site - ESPN Fantasy Football.  Play a couple of the videos.  Read a few of the fan comments.

2. An internet news show.  Go back to the link abovr 12 Noon EST on any Sunday during the regular NFL season.  Click on Fantasy Football Now and sit back and watch the future of the Republican Party of Virginia.  What you actually see is a group of three very talented commentators presenting a live “internet only” show covering the upcoming week of NFL football from a fantasy football player’s perspective.  And here’s the amazing part – this “internet only” show runs at the same time as ESPN’s immensely popular NFL Countdown cable show.  ESPN is willing to split the audience between cable programming (NFL Countdown) and “Internet only” (Fantasy Football Now).  Why?  Because they want to target the fantasy players with specific fantasy content.  Matthew Berry (aka The Talented Mr. Roto) leads the show which is filmed in a production quality studio as it is broadcast.  Viewers can send real-time questions via their computer asking the commentators their opinion of the games and players.  Some are read “on air”, some are answered via return message that all can see.  Statistics flash up on the screen as the show progresses.  The hosts argue who will play well and who will not.  It is creative, immersive and (for a fantasy fan like me) fantastic.  “Tune in” tomorrow at 12 EST and see for yourself.

The RPV and ESPN -The RPV cannot afford to match the Democrats with open air advertising.  They lack the funds and they will get crushed.  The RPV cannot sit idly by and complain about the media, the fiction of NoVA liberalism or anything else.  They must act.  I strongly suggest that they take a long look at ESPN’s brilliant fantasy football package and ask what parts of that concept could be reused in a political setting.  Certainly the multimedia web site, the rolling commentary from voters, the multi-tier audience (anonmyous and registered).  But also the weekly Internet show.  Virginia Now!  One hour a week for the grassroots political junkies who turn unknown candidates into kings (yes, I am referring to Barack Obama).  Why not?  What has the RPV got to lose?

Rove v. Wave

Jimmy Carter, Redux -I found an interesting article in the Nov. 24, 2008 issue of Newsweek titled, “A Way Out of the Wilderness”.  Yes, that’s an old issue of Newsweek.  But I am traveling through Europe and my Amazon Kindle’s network doesn’t work here.  So, I am reduced to actually obtaining print magazines.  Anyway, I am mystified as to why George Bush’s largely discredited political strategist is writing about how the Republicans can come back into power against the Obama wave of populism.  It reminds me of Jimmy Carter lecturing the sitting president on what he should be doing.  Both are like the Chicago Cubs opining on World Series celebrations.

Hmmm….- Rove’s ideas aren’t half bad, if perhaps 8 years late.  First, he argues against mindless opposition to Obama urging Republicans to pick their fights carefully.  Good advice.   He goes on to talk about broadening the platform, winning the war on terror, finding good candidates, etc.   Mostly what one would expect.   However, Rove does make three points worthy of special note:

Eric Cantor -One of Rove’s great points was that the Republicans need to find better candidates if they have any chance of winning again.  He names a number of promising Republican politicians including Virginia’s Rep. Eric Cantor.  Cantor represents Virginia’s 7th district in the US House of Representatives.  A conservative, Jewish Republican Cantor is widely seen as both competent and the kind of new Republican face that the party needs (my words, not Rove’s).  At 45 years old Cantor has a long runway in front of him. I am personally pleased to know that Virginia has at least one promising young Republican on the national stage.

“An Anti-Hispanic attitude is suicidal” - That’s a direct quote (hence the quotation marks).  Rove could not be more right on this. The faction of the Republican Party that pursues anti-Hispanic views under the thin disguise of immigration reform is just killing the party. While some immigration reform is clearly required, the fact that we have ignored the borders for years cannot be reversed through harassment of those who entered the country illegally, it cannot be reversed through mass deportation or denial of basic services to these folks.

New Media - Finally, Rove’s 10th and last point is his best – “The GOP Must Master New Media”.  More on that ina subsequent post.

Vick’s 2009 Season

July 20, 2009 - That’s the date Michael Vick could be out of prison.  In fact, he could be in a halfway house by January, 2009.  July 20 would be right in time for the next NFL season.  But will Michael be playing in the NFL next year?  I hope so.

A long way up, a long way down -Michael Dwayne Vick was born in the housing projects of Newport News.  His parents (good people from all accounts) got married when Michael was 5.  Mike kept his nose clean through high school.  In one memorable high school game he scored 9 TDs – 6 throwing and 3 rushing.  He wound up at Virginia Tech.  He played as a Hokie for a few years before dropping out.  He came close to the Heisman as a Freshman (Ron Dayne won it that year).  Then he left Blacksburg and ended up at the Atlanta Falcons.  Great years and average years were punctuated by injuries during his time in the NFL.  He was named to the 2002 and 2004 Pro Bowls.  In 2006, he became the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards.  Yeah, you read that right – 2006.  He was going through defenses like a hot knife through butter just 2 years ago.  How soon we forget.

2007 – Michael had better years than 2007.  In fact, few people ever had such bad years.  On April 25, 2007 the newspapers were full of Michael Vick headlines.  He was charged in July, plead guilty in August, got caught smoking some dope in September and was sentenced in December.  Now that’s a really bad year.

It’s all his fault -Everything that has happened to Mike Vick is his own fault.  Nobody else’s.  He broke the law, he fought the dogs, he set up the gambling ring, he was caught, charged, plead guilty, was sentenced and now he’s in prison.  He’s also gone bankrupt and had his personal reputation destroyed.

But what did he really do?  Mike Vick was savage and sadistic with those dogs.  That’s hard to argue.  But hunting a deer is a bit savage too.  Shooting the critter with a bullet or arrow and then tracking it through the woods as it bleeds to death?  Not exactly warm and fuzzy behavior.  And killing dogs that don’t perform well is just mean.  I prefer to poison the mice that have the temerity to come into my house in the winter and build nests.  And unless you are a plastic shoes wearing vegan you participate in some pretty heinous treatment of animals.  Like to fish?  How much pain is caused when you impale a minnow on a hook so that you can impale a larger fish on the hook and drag it through the water.  Maybe you’ll eat it, maybe not.  Some of the fish that get released live…some…sometimes.  Kind of like your chicken McNuggets?  Hmmmm….  How do you think the Purdues and others treat those birds prior to their demise?  See a spider on the ground on your porch?  Quick – crunch it with your heel.  And betting?  That clearly illegal.  Unless you operate a state sponsored horse racing venue or a state lottery, or a dog track, or slots in Charlestwon, WVA or casinos or hai lai.  But illegal betting is illegal.  The office pool police get really testy around NCAA tournament time.  And that fantasy  football league you run on ESPN’s web site.  That’s not real gambling. I mean not really, right?

Savagery and betting -Michael Vick was savage.  Michael Vick established a betting operation to wager on the cruelty he was inflicting in these endeavors.  I see what he was doing as despicable but not terrible.  It was discusting but not deserving of a ruined life.  He should get what he got – 23 months in federal lookup with some time off for good behavior.  Recently, the state charges were suspended based on an promise of good behavior.  Now, Mike’s had some challenges in that category in the past.  We talked about the dope smoking while out and about prior to sentencing.  But we missed flipping off the fans and that odd Gatorade bottle with the secret compartment for jewels.  So, good behavior is a bit relative for Michael.

Groveton’s Grip -It’s time to start Mike on that long road back to the NFL.  Mike must keep his act clean and get into the halfway house in January.  He needs to be out by July.  Roger Godell needs to reinstate Michael to the NFL saying that he’s paid his debt to society (which he has).  Arthur Blank, owner of the Falcons, hopes to see Michael play for the NFL but not the Falcons.  The Falcons have, as Mr. Blank says, “turned the page, closed the chapter, shut the book”.  OK, that’s pretty clear.  But where could he go?  I was sitting im my family room this afternoon and there was a football game on TV.  A new coach has been brought in.  Formerly a Quarterbacks Coach he’s been launched up to Head Coach.  He’ trying to take a deep, 7 step down-field passer and make him into the cornerstone of a West Coast offense.  But the poor old QB just isn’t quick enough.  Wait!  What was the name of that QB who ran for 1,000 yards in 2006?  What’s he doing now?  When will his current contract expire?  Maybe Mr. Snyder ought to look up that halfway house come this January.  See what Virginia’s own Mike Vick has on his mind.

Deflation – Cheap Talk

Background: I studied economics in college but I am not an economist.  I try to keep up with the “dismal science” but I am an amateur.  However, I have recently been mystified by all the talk of impending deflation, Stag-deflation, deflation and on and on.  So I thought I’d put my admittedly “arm chair” view out on the blog.

Deflation – I don’t buy it.  Deflation is a prolonged and sustained fall in prices.  It was part and parcel of the misery of the Great Depression.  Farming communities were hurt badly when commodity crop prices fell and then devastated when the multi-year drought befell much or rural America.  We all recall Tom Joad and the Grapes of Wrath.  Tom and his family moved from Oklahoma to California to avoid the dust bowl and the general deflation of farm products and the commitant increase in farm unemployment.  Hopefully, the present generation of the Goad family is not sitting on half built homes in the Inland Empire.  Or, maybe there will be a Grapes of Wrath – Part 2: Oklahoma was OK After All.

Liquidity Trap – The trouble with deflation, apparently, is that it starts a deflationary spiral where lower prices create lower employment which shrinks wealth and causes a further loss in demand which lowers prices and creates lower employment which shrinks wealth and so on and so on in a spiral of pain and disillusionment.  The bony fingers of faded history often point to liquidity traps as the root stock of a good, old fashioned deflation.  Under this interesting but ancient theory the wealthy in a society decide that the risk of investment has hit unprecedented levels so they stop investing.  Money is stored in economic sink holes like money market funds, savings accounts, T-Bills.  The money is not moving.  It does not create more money (a la the velocity of money) and this stagnation of investment causes deflation.

Thinking outside the spiral.  The usual fear in developed economies is hyper-inflation.  We’ve all seen this in the mid to late 1970 and into the early part of the 1980s.  Interest rates and inflation rates goose stepped through the US economy wreaking havoc along the way.  You’ll remember those bad old days during the Carter Administration as unemployment and interest rates and inflation all soared at the same time.  Prior to this period that combination of economic poison was not thought possible.  But Jimmy Carter entered the history books with Stag-flation as his contribution to economic thought.

Who wants to be a bank?  Today, the politicians are falling over themselves in order to give out a piece of TARP.  And the willing recipients are standing in line for a piece of the government cheese.  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, American express (reconstituted as a bank), GM, Ford, California, etc.  Everybody wants to wet their beak in the sugary water of a government backed loan or “injection of liquidity”.  And how will the government pay for all this?  They will just print more money.  Raise the deficit further.  Devalue the currency by making so much more of it.  And … spike inflation.

Inflation is the risk.  Oil prices are at a low.  Gasoline is easily under $2/gallon.  Commodity energy prices are falling.  But does anyone think this is sustainable?  They will go up again.  And the American consumer is spending less.  But does anybody believe that this will become a trend – even when the good times return?  Or, will the American people, kings and queens of consumption, start buying iPods, earrings, SUVs, vacation homes and everything else under the sun as soon as the good times are back?  Meanwhile, the fed is printing $7.2T for the bailout program.  Yes, that “T” is the abbreviation for trillion.  The US government printing presses are running day and night to create this many new Benjis and C-Notes.

Welcome back, Carter.  So, what happens?  Inflation, not deflation.  Prices rise, not fall.  Employment falls.  Investment falls.  Stagflagtion.

Groveton’sGrip: All this talk of deflation is hooey.  Our present plans have us on course for a major inflation.  Smart investors would be shorting bonds and municipals with short term interest rates.  Smart investors will be long companies with a lot of fixed rate debt on their balance sheets.

Obama 2nd week – mixed

Lessons Learned:Obama learned some lessons regarding public interviews from Week 1.  His discussion on 60 Minutes was well organized and properly demure.  In particular, his answer to the question about Hillary Clinton in the cabinet was cool.  Saying things like, “I value her advice”, etc is what presidents say when they don’t want to say anything.  Grade: A

Appointments:Rahm Emmanuel was an expected choice as Chief of Staff.  Combative to a fault, Emmauel would be an embarrasment in any position other than Chief of Staff.  However, the President’s Chief of Staff needs to protect the president and keep those surrounding him on the agenda.  Emmanuel is a good choice for presidential pit bull.  Daschle as Secretary of Health and Human Services was also predictable.  Political payback for his tenure in Congress.  He’ll be repaid, out of sight and out of mind for the next few years.  Smart move.  For any who wonder why I say he’ll be invisible – quick, without using Google, who is the current Secretary of HHS?  Why Michael Okelund Leavitt of course.  Hey Daschle – see you in a few years!  Grade: B (Emmanuel is a risk even as Chief of Staff).

Billary:The Hillary saga will not end.  Obama wants her as Secretary of State.  Another case of hiding in plain sight.  She’ll get some noteriety but there is only so much harm a Secretary of State can do.  I think she’ll do fine and Obama has pulled together the Democratic Party a bit.  Who knows – he may need votes in 2012.  Carter did.  But all dealings with the Clintons come replete with a major tradgi – drama and this was no exception.  It seems that Bill’s charitable foundation might interfere with Hillary’s duties as Secretary of State.  So, the Clintons (true to form) are playing the supposedly secret background financial check out in public.  I’d say they were airing their dirty laundry out in public but I wonder if there is enough air in the world for that.  Bill apparently wants to keep his charitable foundation going.  I’m stunned.  I would have thought the prospect of his wife being out of the country for prolonged periods of time might be appealing.  Obama learns another lesson on the limits of Presidential power.  He plays by the rules while the Clintons don’t.  Grade: C+

Detroit Bailout:Mitt Romney is making Obama look a bit naieve.  Obama wants to bail out the auto makers so they won’t go bankrupt.  Sounds reasonable – give or take the $30B – $50B it will cost.  After all, bankrupt companies don’t employ anybody.  Or do they?  Mitt takes to the air and walks through the process by which bankruptcy (a la Chapter 11) can give a failing company a chance.  Mitt sees balance sheet restructuring, renegotiated labor contracts and pension relief.  He says the auto makers have been non-competitive for decades and just propping them up is not the answer.  The answer is a Chapter 11 reorganization which takes the present day auto makers in the manifold and generates 500 horsepower of new age car company as it goes.  He doesn’t mention the unions, their pensions, the shareholders and pehaps even some creditors coming out the exhaust pipe.  But Mitt is right.  These guys need more than cash.  And Obama’s apparent inability to understand Chapter 11 reorganization as a tool for big business reform leaves me wondering whether he really is ready to lead.  Maybe he just needs a Treasury Secretary to keep things on the up and up.  My resume has been sent.  Oddly, there has been no reply.  Finally, in a typical big business stunner, the CEOs of the Big 3 fly to Washington in private corporate jets to plead poverty.  Grade:D.

Overall week: C+

Bulova Time?

Post Obama Politics. One of the first of the post Obama political matchups will be occurring in Fairfax County.  On Election Day, Nov. 4, Democrat Gerry Connolly defeated Republican Keith Fimian for the congressional seat vacated by Rep. Tom Davis (R-Virginia 11^th District).  Prior to running for Congress, Gerry Connolly was the Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors.  Fairfax County needs a new Chairman for the BoS and this will be the first post-Obama election in Virginia (at least, that I know).  It may be a chance to see whether the electorate in Fairfax County is still celebrating Obama’s victory or having the first pangs of voter remorse.  Connolly will officially step down in January and the election is expected to be held in early February.

Chairman of the Fairfax County BoS. Normally, a race to become the chairman of a county board would be more boring than a reality TV show.  But this one has a bit of spice.  Not quite chicken vindaloo but a Taco Bell burrito with a half packet of hot sauce.  Why?  First, Fairfax County is a big county.  The population is a bit over 1 million and the annual budget is around $3.4B.  Second, two of the recent chairmen of the board of supervisors have gone on to the US Congress – Tom Davis and now Gerry Connolly.  Unfortunately for the residents of Fairfax County, some of the political Tabasco sauce comes from the fact that the county is facing a $500M shortfall in the next fiscal year.  Whoever becomes chairman will have plenty to occupy his or her time.

The Candidates. Two current board members are expected to vie for the slot.  Sharon Bulova (D – Braddock District) has been jonesin’ for the position since before Gerry even won his congressional race.  Eyeing Connolly’s still warm seat from the right is Patrick Herrity (R-Springfield).  Herrity has also been rumored to be licking his chops over this for a while.  Who knows – he may have even voted for Connolly as way for him to give Gerry a personal nudge toward Capitol Hill (and away from Fairfax County).  There have been rumors that a number of Fairfax County Republican voters gave Gerry the nod in the recent election because they figured he was less dangerous in Washington than Fairfax.  I don’t know that’s true but I don’t know it’s false either.

Bulova – Virginia’s Buffet? Sharon Bulova has been touting her experience on the Fairfax BoS and her role helping the county through the last recession.  She was the budget chairman during the last downturn and has been throwing her shoulder out of joint patting herself on the back over what a fine job she did back then.

Herrity – where have I heard that name? Herrity, oddly enough, is a professional accountant.  He has limited political experience but long time Fairfax County residents will find a ring to his name.  That ring comes from his father – Jack Herrity, the longtime Fairfax BoS member and chairman.  Jack passed ad astra in early 2006 after a sudden illness.

Groveton’s Grip – Neither of these two modern day Bernard Baruch’s have raised much money – despite coveting this job for some time.  Bulova has about $38,000 of cash on hand while Herrity has about $6,000.  Bulova has the momentum of the Democratic election and is running in a county that has fallen in love with the Democratic Party.  Herrity has name recognition but many of Fairfax County’s current residents were living in places like Long Island when Jumpin’ Jack Flash Herrity was running the show.  Voter turnout will be low based on what I see as “foolishness fatigue” from the recent national elections.  This will be a single candidate ballot with no other issues as I understand things.  Herrity would need to spend some serious dough to get out enough Republicans to beat Ms. Bulova.  And he has …. $6,000.  $6,000?  That’s barely enough to launch a decent negative robo-call program in a single district let alone an entire county.  I am picking Bulova here.

The Courtship of Eddie Royal

We hate ourselves. It seems to me that Virginia has become a bastion of self-hatred.  “The Real Virginia”, traffic, budget deficits, Meccaca and other recent ramblings have Virginians trying to kick themselves in their own butts.  Gone are the days of reverence for Washington, Jefferson. Arthur Ashe and any other luminary from Virginia.  Heck, Katie Couric is presumed to be from New York and Sandra Bullock hails from Austin, TX (great town – by the way).  So, even Virginia bred stars and starlets are off to new venues.  What do we have left?  Oh, woe is me.  We must just suck.

Fast Eddie. Eddie Royal plays football for the Denver Broncos.  He graduated from Westfield High School in Fairfax County, VA.  Then he took a turn down to Blacksburg at Virginia Tech.  How did he do in these endeavors?  Let’s start at Westfiled High School.  Eddie was on the undefeated 2003 team that won the Virginia state championship against Landsdown at the University of Richmond Stadium.   Eddie then went on to Virginia Tech where he finished first in career all-purpose yards in school history (4,686), fourth in career receptions (119), fifth in receiving touchdowns (12) and sixth in receiving yards (1,778).  Showing what has been (in my opinion) disproportionate disregard for Virginia-born athletes, Eddie was picked in the second round (42nd pick overall) in the 2008 NFL draft.  That means the Redskins – who traded away their first round pick, still had the right to pick Eddie Royal in the second round.  Instead, they picked Devin Thomas with the third pick of the second round (34th overall).  Devin is a big, string WR from Michigan State.  Eight picks later the Broncos chose Virginia’s own Eddie Royal.

Mid Season Form So, how have these picks developed?  Devin Thomas (picked 34th overall by the Redskins) will be playing the Cowboys Sunday night.  So far this year – in a west coast offense – Devin has 8 receptions for 63 yards and 0 touchdowns.  That’s for the year so far.  Eddie Royal had 9 catches for 146 yards and 1 touchdown in his first game.  Since that game he has continued to play well.  He now has 53 receptions for 635 yards and 4 TDs.

Time Will Tell Half a year does not a career make (unless of course you play for Mike Singletary who can end a carrer at one half of a sentence).  Devin Thomas is a big, strong possession receiver – think Art Monk.  But here and now, Eddie is just kicking it.

In the front of my eye Normally, I watch the Redskins out of the front of my eyes and every other game out of the corner of my eyes.  But tomorrow, the Redskins kick-off at 8PM which will allow me to watch the earlier games out of the front of my eyes …. like the Broncos playing away at Atlanta at 1:00 PM.  Go Eddie!

Back here in the fake Virginia. Eddie Royal is so fast I’ve been told that he can turn out the lights and still be in bed before the room goes dark.  Let’s hope that speed, those hands and the blessings of a fabulous QB (Jay Cutler) will get the ball in Eddie’s hands in the endzone.

If so, I’ll have to keep wondering if we’ll see Dan Snyder patroling local high school football teams on Friday nights.  He might be surprised what he finds.  For example, the state championship Westfield team of 2003 also had a couple of other players along with Eddie – Sean Glennon (QB – VT) and Evan Royster (RB – Penn State).  Presumably they will be in or around the 2009 NFL draft.

Groveton’s Bottom Line. It’s time for Dan Snyder and his band of merry men to take a break from the local Morton’s Steak House on Friday night and head out to local high school football games.  Players like Eddie Royal are performing right under their noses.  And for the self haters in Virginia in general and NoVA specifically – watch the Denver game tomorrw at 1:00 PM.  See what one of our native sons can do.

Obama’s first week – Silly

Declaration of Independence: Well, it’s been over a week since the election and I thought I’d publish the first Obama Watch.  Let me start with a disclosure – I am neither excited nor frustrated by the election of Barack Obama.  I was one of those “many in the middle” right up to election day.  After standing in line for 2 1/2 hours I voted.  And I won’t say who I voted for.  All I’ll say is that it was a close call and I see myself as independent.  I am not an Obamamaniac, I am not “in the Resistance”.  But I do want to burn some bits keeping track of President – elect Obama and, once inaugurated, President Obama.  So, here goes -

Week 1 – November 4 to November 10

Acceptance Speech: Was it just me or did Obama’s acceptance speech seem like a bit of backpedaling?  As always, the tone and tenor of the speech was amazing.  That dude can quack!  But can he govern?  Suddenly, the simple and easy truths he had been speaking during the campaign became long and difficult journeys after he was elected.  I guess this is common.  The original George Bush famously called Ronald Reagan’s fiscal policy “voodoo economics”.  Apparently he changed his mind once Reagan picked him as his running mate.  During the 1988 campaign the very same original Bush said, “Read my lips, no new taxes!”.  Lots of things change as the campaign trail becomes the walkway into the White House.  In most ways I am glad that Barack seems to be having this “Oh Shoot!” (this is a PG blog) moment.  Maybe the depth of the problems and the effort required to address the problems are sinking in.  Grade: B+

Insulting Nancy Reagan: What is it with newly elected Democratic presidents?  They all seem to fancy themselves comedians.  Clinton used to go on and on at banquets.  He was finally dubbed “Mr. Saturday Night”.  Then somebody with some sense must have told him to clam up with the jokes.  Maybe it was Monica.  Anyway, Obama starts his post election tenure with a speech including a gratuitous insult of Nancy Reagan.  Something about seances.  Why anybody would find it clever to insult an elderly widow who never held elected office and hasn’t occupied the White House in 20 years is beyond me.  Evidently it was beyond President-elect Obama after he engaged his brain (albeit a few minutes too late).  I understand he called Mrs. Reagan and apologized.  That showed some class.  Of course, stifling himself on the old lady insults would have been even better.  Grade: C- (would have been F without apology).

Leaking conversations with Bush:  OK Obama, you are the President-elect.  You are about to be told all kinds of things that need to be kept quiet.  Does America really need to know that every vice president for the last 20 years has actually been one of the space aliens who landed at Area 51?  No.  So, when you enter into a supposedly private conversation with the sitting president – should you keep the talk confidential?  Yes.  But President elect Obama was unable to do this.  Instead, he ran to his aides (who were not in the meeting) and chirped up a storm telling them all the steamy details of his chat with Dubya.  Then his aides, like adolescent schoolgirls, ran to the press to pass on the salacious gossip.  Needless to say, Dubya found this annoying and threatened to stop palin’ around with BO.  Meanwhile, both Cheney and Biden (communicating through alien mind melds) found the whole episode distressing.  They are once again silently bemoaning that day in the 1950s when they crash landed at that lake in Nevada.  Grade: F.

Not a great week.  Too much silliness.  Overall grade: D